This was the result of a survey conducted by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) on the possible consequences of Brexit. Around 360 leading bankers from the UK, France, the USA, and Germany took part. The analysis was carried out in June of 2016, shortly before the UK referendum on whether to leave the European Union. According to the study, around 20 percent of financial service jobs in London could be relocated to other global financial centers.
Frankfurt ranks among the most attractive locations for financial service providers with offices in London that are considering relocating their business activities abroad due to the UK’s impending withdrawal from the EU. The survey, which was conducted shortly before the Brexit referendum, found that Frankfurt am Main is viewed as a prime business location in particular due to the economic and political stability in Germany combined with the availability of qualified workers.
14 criteria as a benchmark for location attractiveness
Among the nine global financial centers that could serve as an alternative to the British financial hub, the bankers rate Frankfurt as the best option, followed by New York and Dublin. The attractiveness of nine locations was surveyed, which in addition to Frankfurt, New York, and Dublin also included Amsterdam, Hong Kong, Luxembourg, Madrid, Paris, and Singapore. The bankers view these cities to offer different advantages. For example, Paris scores well when it comes to quality of life, while New York would be appealing in the event that a number of American banks decide to break ties with the EU market. The location attractiveness for banks was surveyed using 14 criteria, which include infrastructure, business environment, stability, lifestyle factors, and access to markets and institutions.
Job relocations even in other industries
Bank representatives expect job relocations within their own industry in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. What’s more, they believe that the service sector and insurance industry in particular, but also the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries in the UK, will experience more severe turmoil. Germany should prepare for job relocations from various industries and be ready to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the arrival of qualified, talented workers.
Uncertainty regarding consequences and long-term impact
Nearly 60 percent anticipate the introduction of permanent restrictions on access to the EU market or long lasting uncertainty until the EU and UK reach an agreement aimed at implementing the Brexit vote. The survey, which was conducted prior to the Brexit referendum, found that the majority of financial service providers nonetheless are not overly concerned on the whole about the impact that Brexit could have on the financial industry.
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